Even Greenpeace Gets Fooled

When Greenpeace becomes a bunch of wide-eyed optimists about a treaty that even OPEC likes, you know we’re in trouble. They list 5 things to know about COP21, and get 4 1/2 of them wrong. Such touching naiveté.

1. “They’re meeting in Paris to try and agree a global legally binding climate treaty.”
   • They say “legally binding,” but that’s a joke. Without any enforcement at all, nothing is binding. And no one will even mention …
     enforcement. Kyoto was “legally binding” and Canada publically broke that agreement right in the middle of Copenhagen. No one even mentioned taking any action.
2. “The talks are about getting us on track to keep global warming below 2°C.”
   • Half right. The talks claim to be about. But they are not, and they will not, come close. The UN analysis say CO₂ emissions will up higher in 2030, and we will have used up 750 out of our 1,000 Gt CO₂ limit. By then we will have to completely stop carbon in under 14 years, and emissions will still be rising. Get the details here: COP21 Paris — That’s the most important page on the climate web.
3. “The INDCs [pledges] signify what the biggest polluters – including the US, China, Europe and India – are willing to do to tackle global climate change.”
   • Nope. China’s pledge of stopping CO₂ increases by 2030 is purely because it needs to stop killing 1.6 million a year with coal pollution. Obama is willing, but he’s not the US. India wants to be paid $2.5 trillion and still double it’s coal production. Get a grip Greenpeace. Countries are selfish. Even Christiana Figueres understands this.
4. “That’s all great but surely it all depends on the political will of states, right? Absolutely.”
   • It’s not great, exactly because it depends on “political will,” which is a codeword for altruism. They use a codeword, because everyone knows countries are not altruistic.
   • If you want a strong climate agreement, you’ve got to get it the same way you get any other kind of cooperation. You make a deal. You say, I will do X (e.g. price carbon) if all of you will do X (set the same price). Then countries can name a strong X, because they know the will not be played for suckers.
   • Elinor Ostrom explained this. She spent her career studying this problem, and won the Nobel Prize in 2009. Pay some attention to science, Greenpeace.
5. “Is there anything I can do. Yes, Join the march.”
   • Well you could, but the politicians are going to declare success and say they did what you marched for. But it won’t be true. They’ve got that one figured out.
   • What you actually could do is spread the word that they’re lying about reaching the 2C goal. They’re making it harder. The only way to convince people of this is to show that’s actually what the UN scientist put into their reports, but it’s being hidden.
   • Here’s what you need to know, tweet, link and post on facebook: COP21 Paris.