The UNEP released the Executive Summary of its 6th annual Emissions Gap Report. These track how far short the climate pledges are falling relative to the 2°C goal. Basically it says, many models say that the INDCs make the 2°C scenarios impossible to meet, and the other models say it’s possible with a massive cost increase.
The press release explains that “2030 projections based on current policies are themselves 5 GtCO2e per year lower than the estimate of 65 GtCO2e.” This means the CO2e emissions would be 60 GtCO2e in 2030 under the current INDCs.
Then the executive summary tells us that
A significant number of models are not able to produce 2°C scenarios consistent with global emission levels in 2030 above 55 GtCO2e, while other scenarios which delay enhanced mitigation action until after 2030 would imply massive cost increases coupled with a need for unprecedented political action. [bold added]
Since 55 GtCO2e, is considerably better than the predicted 60 GtCO2e for INDCs, these models would find it even harder than impossible to meet the scenarios that give us a 66% chance of keeping the temperature increase down to 2°C.
The spin in the press release headline is much more optimistic. This is what you need to watch out for. Almost none of the press is being objective about the Paris conference. Why is this? Comments?